Winter is officially here, Will it snow?

It's the Lowcountry's favorite weather roller coaster ride: highs in the 70s one day and then a bone-chilling drop into the 20s the next. 

Earlier this month, Charleston residents reached for heavy coats, cranked up the heat, and did double takes at their weather apps as South Carolina experienced freezing mornings, icy roads, and wind chills in the teens. 

It's left many asking a hopeful, half-joking question: Could it actually snow this winter? 

According to Shea Gibson, a Daniel Island-area meteorologist and wind forecaster with WeatherFlow-Tempest, December has indeed been noticeably colder than normal. 

“This is a colder (season) than average, and we have seen early cold snaps before. We are colder than average now since 2017, with the coldest two nights in a row, Dec. 9 and Dec. 10, being 27 degrees.” 

That cold arrived early. While winter officially began Sunday, Dec. 21, Charleston has already logged several freezes. “It is earlier due to polar stratospheric warming and displacement of cold air masses,” Gibson said, noting temperatures are expected to rebound during Christmas week. 

Still, the chill can feel familiar. 

Earlier this past January, the Lowcountry woke up to an unexpected snowfall that shut down roads and sparked a flurry of photos and makeshift sledding. Before that, measurable snow last fell in 2018. 

“It was very unusual and rare to have that much wintry precipitation in our subtropical zone,” Gibson said of January’s snow. “The last significant event was (January) 2018, which was even more rare due to the amount of fine snow that fell to the ground. The closest event we have had to that degree is the record-holding snow event of 1989.” 

Historically, Charleston has seen measurable snowfall only a few times over several decades. “It is very rare for measurable snowfall to have only happened a few times in the last 36 years,” Gibson said. 

And while the cold may hint at possibilities, it doesn’t guarantee snow. 

“The recent cold front is one of a series of brief patterns due to the polar stratospheric warming event to our north,” Gibson said. “The current signals show that we should return to a normal pattern toward the end of the year.” 

So what would it actually take for snow to fall again? A lot has to go right, or wrong, depending on your perspective. 

“Arctic air has to be in place, moisture has to be available, and there cannot be any direction of easterly wind blowing a warmer layer off the ocean,” Gibson said. “Every few years the pattern aligns to give us a little bit of measurable snow. In rare cases, we can see something more significant when those 'ingredients' all come together just right.”  

Looking at this winter, there’s at least a sliver of intrigue. “January is the most common month for snow to occur,” Gibson said, noting that an unstable polar vortex and a lingering La Niña pattern could increase the chances of a winter weather event. 

For now, expectations should stay grounded. 

“There is no current model pointing out any snow events… but we should expect several up-and-down fluctuations through January and February with a slightly higher-than-normal chance for a winter event,” Gibson said.  

In other words, snow lovers shouldn’t get their sleds out just yet, but in Charleston, it never hurts to keep an eye on the forecast.